darth_vasya: (300)
[personal profile] darth_vasya
...поучаствовать в турнире по геополитическому форкастингу? Я там уже третий год, довольно успешно: по итогам прошлого сезона попал в топ 2% - "суперфоркастеры". Почему это интересно: турнир даёт возможность попрактиковаться в количественном выражении прогнозов, что является незаменимой составляющей методов рационального мышления, ну и в качестве дополнительного бонуса для тех, кто в танке (типа вашего попкорного), повод немного выглядывать из танка и быть в курсе событий в мире. Ну а для тех, кто за мировыми новостями постоянно следит, - возможность хоть с какой-то пользой применить полученные сведения ;)

В общем, ссылка с подробностями ниже.

Seeking even more people with good judgment

Help wanted to recruit more forecasters like you!

Dear Vasilii,

The Good Judgment Project has decided to enroll new forecasters mid-season, which is a first for us. We are reaching out to our current forecasters because you are uniquely qualified to recommend others who might find this project worthwhile. (Our goal is to find more people like you, our talented and enthusiastic forecasters!)

Please refer interested parties to our home page at www.goodjudgmentproject.com, where they'll see a REGISTER button at the top of the screen. There are also links to additional information, including the project blog, so that they can get a better sense of the Good Judgment Project and the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament before deciding whether to sign up.

We expect to begin processing new registrations after the Thanksgiving break, so time is of the essence if your friends and colleagues wish to join for the remainder of Season 3. The window for signing up new Season 3 forecasters will remain open into December, however, and our registration site will remain active thereafter for potential Season 4 forecasters. Therefore, it's always appropriate for you to refer potential forecasters to pre-register.

We hope that the first half of Season 3 has been a valuable experience for you. Please do not hesitate to send us any suggestions for improvements in our forecasting platforms and procedures. With your continued participation and good ideas, we "forecast" a great second half of the season for the Good Judgment Project.

Best to all,

Barbara Mellers, Wharton School of Business and Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania
Don Moore, Haas School of Business, University of California - Berkeley
Philip Tetlock, Wharton School of Business and Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania
Terry Murray, Project Manager
... and the rest of the Good Judgment Project
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